California State University Long Beach 

Forecasting impacts of future global change

• Forecasts rely on assumptions
• No matter how sophisticated the models
• GIGO = garbage in, garbage out

• Need to know or assume:
• Rate and kinds of environmental change
• Rate of growth of the human population
• Rate and distribution of economic development
• Rate of consumption of fossil fuels
• Future changes in technology
• Sensitivity of socioeconomic systems to climate change
• Future changes in human behavior
• Long-term vs. short-term benefits
• Cooperation vs. self interest
• The "Prisoner’s Dilemma"

Climate change and human health

• Direct impacts
• Mortality and illness due to heat waves and storm events
• Indirect impacts
• Temperature, rainfall, and sunshine influence distribution and active season of disease-spreading pests ("vectors")
• Mosquitoes, ticks, mice, snails, parasites
• Very likely
• Spread of tropical diseases to temperate zones and higher altitudes
• Malaria, cholera, dengue, hantavirus, yellow fever, etc.

Impacts of global warming (review)

An unintentional, uncontrolled experiment on Earth’s environment
 
• Estimated or potential changes by 2100 A.D.:
• 1.4-5.8°C mean warming
• Globally increased precipitation 0.5-1.0%/decade
• 9-88 cm higher sea level
• Increased occurrence of extreme weather events
• Local droughts, floods, hurricanes, etc.
• Wider spread of tropical diseases, etc.
• Shifting location and changes in size of ecological systems

Lots of uncertainties, especially at regional and local scales

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